The 13-Week Cash View: How HVAC Owners Can Stop Getting Blindsided Every Winter

Every HVAC owner has been there. It's late October. Summer was great—phones ringing, installs booked out, cash flowing. Then the shoulder season hits. Calls slow down. But payroll doesn't. Truck payments don't. Insurance doesn't.

By mid-November you're checking the bank balance every morning wondering if you'll make it to heating season.

This isn't a failure of planning. It's a failure of the type of planning. Annual budgets and P&L reviews don't tell you what you actually need to know: what does cash look like for the next 90 days?

Why Annual Budgets Fail HVAC Businesses

Annual budgets work on averages. You project $4M in revenue, divide by 12, and expect $333K/month.

But HVAC doesn't work that way:

• July and August: Maybe $500K/month (cooling season peak)
• October and November: Maybe $200K/month (shoulder season)
• December and January: Maybe $400K/month (heating season)
• March and April: Maybe $250K/month (shoulder season)

Your annual budget says $333K/month. Reality says $200K in October when you still have $280K in fixed monthly expenses.

This is why HVAC owners feel blindsided even when they "did a budget." The budget wasn't wrong—it just wasn't useful for managing cash in a seasonal business.

The 13-Week Cash Forecast: Your New Tool

Thirteen weeks is one quarter—about 90 days. Long enough to see around corners, short enough to forecast with accuracy.

The structure is simple. Columns are weeks (Week 1, Week 2... Week 13). Rows are cash sources and uses:

Cash In (HVAC-specific):

• Service call collections: Usually immediate or within a week
• Install deposits: When you book the job
• Install progress/final payments: When you complete and collect
• Financing fundings: When the finance company pays you (30-60 days after install)
• Maintenance agreement payments: Monthly or annual, depending on your structure
• Commercial contract payments: Per their terms (net 30, net 60, etc.)

Cash Out (HVAC-specific):

• Payroll + taxes: Every two weeks, non-negotiable
• Parts and materials: COD or net 30 depending on supplier
• Equipment purchases: When you pick up the unit
• Subcontractors: If you use them
• Rent/mortgage: Monthly fixed
• Truck payments: Monthly fixed
• Insurance: Monthly or quarterly
• Loan payments: Monthly fixed
• Owner draws: What you take out
• Quarterly tax estimates: April 15, June 15, Sept 15, Jan 15

Starting cash + Cash in - Cash out = Ending cash. That ending cash becomes next week's starting cash. Roll it forward every week.

Before and After: What Changes

Before the 13-week view:

• "I hope winter is okay."
• "I think we can make payroll."
• "I'm not sure if we should buy that truck right now."
• "Quarterly taxes are coming... I should probably figure that out."

After the 13-week view:

• "I can see exactly when cash dips in Week 6 and what to do about it now."
• "Payroll in Week 8 is tight, but that install payment hits Week 7—we're fine."
• "I can buy the truck, but I need to push the first payment to Week 10."
• "Quarterly taxes hit Week 5. I'm setting aside cash in Weeks 1-4 to cover it."

The forecast doesn't change reality. It changes your ability to see reality and make decisions before you're in a crisis.

"I don't know" is terrifying. "I can see it coming and here's the plan" is manageable.

Decisions the 13-Week View Informs

Once you have this visibility, you can make better decisions about:

• Hiring timing: Should you add a tech now or wait until you see heating season revenue coming in?
• Marketing spend: Can you afford to push ads in the shoulder season, or should you pull back and wait?
• Equipment/vehicle purchases: Is this the right time, or should you delay 30 days?
• Owner distributions: How much can you safely take out without creating a cash hole?
• Debt paydown vs. cash reserves: Should you pay down that loan or keep cash in reserve for the shoulder season?
• Line of credit management: When should you draw, and when should you pay back?

Building Your First 13-Week Forecast

You don't need fancy software. A spreadsheet works. Here's how to start:

1. Start with today's bank balance. That's Week 1 starting cash.
2. Map your fixed outflows. Payroll dates, rent, truck payments, loan payments, insurance. These are predictable—put them in first.
3. Estimate variable outflows. Parts, materials, subs—based on your current job load and historical patterns.
4. Project collections. Look at your AR aging. Look at scheduled installs. When will each payment actually hit? Be realistic about timing.
5. Include the irregular items. Quarterly taxes. Annual insurance renewals. That equipment purchase you're planning.
6. Update it every week. This is critical. Every Monday, roll it forward, update actuals, and adjust projections.

The first version will be rough. By week 4, you'll have a feel for the patterns. By week 8, you'll wonder how you ever ran your business without it.

The Shoulder Season Secret

Here's what the 13-week view reveals that nothing else does: you need to plan for shoulder seasons in advance.

When summer cash is flowing, it feels like you can spend it. But the 13-week view shows you what's coming. It shows the October dip before it hits. It forces you to ask "what do I need to reserve now to get through the shoulder?"

The shops that thrive aren't necessarily the ones with the best summers. They're the ones that manage the shoulder seasons because they saw them coming.

The Bottom Line

Annual budgets tell you what should happen on average. The 13-week cash forecast tells you what's actually going to happen in the next 90 days.

For a seasonal business like HVAC, that's the difference between "I hope we make it" and "I can see the path forward."

Build the forecast. Update it weekly. Stop getting blindsided.